Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms, Oil Backs Off $105
Brent slid to $103 after the Truth Social post, but crude still closed about 4% higher on Thursday.
Photo by Aditya Vyas on Unsplash
Brent fell to $103 after Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before Nov. 3, though crude still closed about 4% higher Thursday.
Trump takes strikes off the table until November
President Donald Trump said Thursday the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. He posted the message on Truth Social after oil jumped on reports that the Pentagon was drawing up options for new strikes.
Trump wrote that Washington is having "productive discussions" with Tehran. He gave no details on who is talking or what is on the table. He also said the naval blockade stays in full force.
The pledge covers roughly 25 days. It is a pause on offensive action, not a ceasefire, and it says nothing about what happens on November 4.
Oil gave back its spike, then some of the pullback
Brent crude ran up more than 4% Thursday after the strike reports surfaced, touching roughly $105 a barrel. It fell to $103 once Trump posted. West Texas Intermediate dropped to about $90.
The retreat did not hold the whole session. Crude futures still finished about 4% higher on the day, so the post trimmed the move without erasing it. Oil then slipped again in early Friday trade as Middle East supply concerns eased.
The round trip shows how headline-sensitive the tape is. A single report added several dollars to Brent. A single post took part of it back. Pre-war, oil sat near $72, and the market is still carrying a large risk premium over that level.
Tehran's escalation in the waterway is unchanged
Trump's restraint comes while Iran keeps escalating attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Those attacks raise the risk for tankers moving crude to global markets, and volumes have been rising.
Trump said 22 million barrels moved through the strait in a single night, with none going to or from Iran. If accurate, that is a heavy flow for a waterway under threat. Shipments through Hormuz have been cut by the attacks, yet higher exports from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman have held Middle East supply near pre-war levels.
That rerouting is the main reason Brent sits at $103 and not far higher. It also means any new strike on a Red Sea or Gulf of Oman terminal would hit a supply path the market is leaning on.
Why the White House wants lower pump prices
The political motive is plain. Gasoline is a live issue on the campaign trail, and reports said administration officials wanted to show progress in the conflict to bring pump prices down. Some analysts read Trump's post as an effort to push crude lower ahead of the vote.
The strike plan carried its own contradiction. Its backers reportedly did not expect attacks to bring Iran to the table or reopen Hormuz. They wanted to show US strength before voters go to the polls. Higher oil on the way to that goal would have cut against it.
The pledge removes the most visible upside catalyst for crude through election day. It leaves the blockade and Tehran's maritime attacks as the remaining sources of supply risk.
Equities and rates felt the oil move
Equities fell Thursday on fresh inflation worries as crude climbed, and global bond yields pushed higher with Brent back above $100. Oil is the transmission channel here. A $105 barrel feeds straight into headline inflation and into rate expectations.
The AI funding rush continues in the background, and it keeps pulling capital toward large technology names. That bid has to compete with an energy shock that lifts yields. Energy shares benefit when Brent holds above $100, and the [Sector Rotation dashboard](/sector) is the place to watch whether money keeps moving toward the group.
For the next three and a half weeks, crude trades on two inputs. One is any detail on the talks Trump described. The other is the next attack on shipping. Brent holding below $105 into the weekend would show the market accepts the pause. The next read comes Monday, when Asian trade sets the first tone for the week.