SPCX Options Flow: $81.3M Bearish Premium Led by Expiring Puts
Puts at the $125 and $128 strikes expiring Nov. 6 headline a tape that leans heavily to the downside
Photo by Ruben Sukatendel on Unsplash
SPCX posted $81.3M of net bearish premium today, led by $125 and $128 puts expiring Nov. 6, just above Thursday's close.
The tape leans bearish, and it's not close
SPCX closed today's session with a net premium impact of negative $81.3M. That is a decisive bearish lean, and the most interesting detail sits in the front of the curve. The two largest whale prints were puts expiring today, Nov. 6: $0.42M at the $125 strike and $0.29M at the $128 strike.
Both strikes sit just above Thursday's close of $123.62, when the stock dropped 9.05% on a session range of $120.39 to $131.87. Traders were paying for downside that was already in the money or close to it at the open, which reads as a bet on continuation rather than a hedge against a distant tail.
Zero-day puts around the prior close
A third expiring put, the $120 strike at $0.04M, sits almost exactly at Thursday's session low of $120.39. That's a small print, but it fits the pattern. Size was concentrated in strikes within a few points of where the stock was trading, not in lottery tickets far out of the money.
The only other put in the group was a $100 contract for Nov. 11 at $0.02M. It's minor in premium terms, but it's the one print that points to a deeper tail scenario into next week. The $100 strike is below the 52-week low of $104.83.
The call side is thin and scattered
Calls showed up, but with much less weight. The largest was $0.12M at the $135 strike expiring Dec. 18. Next came $0.10M on the $120 call for Nov. 20 and $0.06M on the $130 call for the same date. A $140 call for Nov. 13 added just $0.01M.
Those four prints total $0.29M against $0.77M across the four puts. The $135 strike is worth noting because it matches the June IPO price, and a December call there is a reasonable marker for where some traders expect a recovery to stall or complete. Nothing in the call group suggests urgency. These look like positioned views, not chasing.
What the positioning implies
The whale prints listed here add up to far less than the $81.3M net figure, so the headline number reflects broad activity across the chain and not just the large blocks. We can't tell from these prints alone whether the puts were opened as buys or sold. The net premium reading points to bearish pressure overall, and the concentration in expiring contracts says traders were focused on the near term.
The backdrop explains the appetite for downside. SPCX has slid from $141.31 at the Election Day close to roughly $125 and now trades below its $135 IPO price, in a market that has been unkind to AI exposure. With beta north of 4 by one measure, hedging demand and outright bearish bets can both be expected to run hot.
What to watch next
The first test is how the $125 and $128 puts settle at the close, since that tells you whether Thursday's low held as the line. After that, watch the $120.39 low from Thursday and the 52-week low of $104.83. A break of the first would put the $100 puts for Nov. 11 in play.
On the upside, reclaiming $135 would put the stock back at its IPO price and in range of the December calls. The next scheduled print isn't until late February, so flow into the Nov. 13 and Nov. 20 expiries is the best read on how traders are positioned until then. Track it live on the [Whale Alerts dashboard](/whalealerts).