Kalshi Odds on 5,100 Data Centers Jump to 75% From 60%
Prediction market traders are pricing in more US data center projects by the end of 2026, even as local opposition grows.
Photo by Joshua Woroniecki on Unsplash
Kalshi traders now put 75% odds on more than 5,100 planned or operating US data centers before 2027, up from 60% two weeks ago.
The 15 point move
Kalshi traders see a 75% chance that the US count of planned and operating data centers clears 5,100 before 2027. Two weeks ago the same contract sat at 60%. A 15 point repricing in 14 days is a real change in conviction, not drift.
The contract settles on a public tracker that maps both live and proposed facilities. That tracker currently shows more than 4,700 operating and planned sites nationwide. Getting to 5,100 means roughly 400 net additions in about 12 weeks, so the market is betting that announcements keep arriving at a steady clip through year end.
Where the count stands
Virginia leads with more than 670 planned and live facilities. Texas follows with 537, and California has more than 200. Tech companies have also been adding footprint in New Mexico and Arizona, which keeps the geographic spread of new projects widening beyond the legacy hubs.
The count includes proposed sites, and that matters for how you read the odds. A planned facility needs a filing or an announcement, not a finished building. The bar is far lower than energized capacity, which is why 75% is believable even with grid interconnection queues running two to three years.
Backlash has not slowed the tally
Communities and activists have pushed back hard on rising utility costs and water consumption. New York became the first state to halt new data center permits, and about 115 municipalities nationwide have moved on moratoriums, based on Kalshi's own research published this summer. That is a genuine policy headwind.
The odds say it has not dented the pipeline yet. Traders are weighing local friction against capital that is already committed, and for now the capital is winning. Meta's Hyperion campus in Louisiana is a clean example. The July expansion took it to 5 gigawatts of planned compute with more than $50 billion of investment attached.
The spending behind the number
Kalshi's research puts Big Tech capex at $240 billion in 2024, $410 billion in 2025 and $725 billion in 2026. Spending at that scale does not reverse because a county board says no. Developers simply shift to friendlier jurisdictions, which is part of why Texas and the Southwest keep showing up in the project lists.
The same research showed expected active US data centers at 5,120 for year end, up from a forecast of 4,700 in early June. That is a sharp upward revision. The new 75% reading on the 5,100 threshold is consistent with it, and the recent jump in odds suggests the market is moving closer to that higher figure. Power and equipment names tied to this buildout are worth tracking on the [Sector Rotation dashboard](/sector).
What would break the trade
The main risk to a 75% contract is a slowdown in new filings, not a collapse in demand. A wave of state level moratoriums would cut the flow of proposals first, well before it touched capex budgets. Grid approval delays could also push projects out of the planned category if developers withdraw.
There is a tail the other way too. Because the count includes proposals, a burst of large campus announcements in the fourth quarter could carry the contract past the line quickly. At 75%, the market is paying for the base case, not the extreme one.
Watch the hyperscaler capex updates in the late October reporting window. Any cut to 2026 or 2027 spending guidance would be the first real test of these odds, and the next move in this contract will likely follow it.