AVGO Puts Draw $89M Net Bearish Flow Ahead of Earnings

The Tape Today

AVGO printed a net premium impact of negative $89.2 million today, a sizable tilt toward puts that stands out even in a name that trades heavy institutional volume. The flow wasn't concentrated in a single expiry. Instead, repeated hits on puts stretched from September 2026 all the way to December 2028, suggesting a longer timeframe thesis rather than an event trade against the upcoming September 2nd earnings.

The structure of the flow matters here. When you see repeated hits on the same strike and expiry, that's typically one desk building a position over time to avoid moving the market. It's also a tell that someone has conviction, because accumulating through multiple prints signals intent rather than a one-off hedge.

Notable Strikes and Expiries

The largest single print today was a $400K position on the $360 put expiring December 2028, flagged on a RepeatedHitsAscendingFill rule. That means the trader was paying up through multiple fills at rising prices, which usually indicates urgency. A second $400K print hit the same strike and expiry, reinforcing the thesis that someone wants meaningful exposure to downside risk nearly two and a half years out.

Closer to now, the $390 put expiring September 2026 took $170K in premium, and the $400 put for January 2027 saw $310K in repeated hits. These strikes sit roughly 6 to 8 percent below current levels, depending on where you mark the stock. They're out of the money but not lottery tickets. If AVGO trades down 15 percent over the next year, these prints move into the money.

On the call side, flow was thin. A $220K print on the $392.50 call expiring August 17th was the only notable activity, and that's so close to expiry it reads more like a hedge leg or short cover than a directional bet.

Context: Earnings and Recent Price Action

Broadcom reports Q3 earnings on September 2nd after the close. The stock dropped 12.6 percent the day after its June report, when CEO Hock Tan declined to raise the company's full year AI revenue target of $100 billion. Since then, AVGO has traded in a range between roughly $356 and $433, sitting near the upper end of that band today.

The put accumulation in September expiries could be positioning for that event. But the heavier premiums went into 2028 LEAPs, which don't fit a pure earnings hedge profile. That duration suggests someone is pricing in a broader risk: valuation compression, customer concentration in AI chips, or simply mean reversion in a name that has nearly tripled since 2023.

You can dig into the [Whale Alerts dashboard](/whalealerts) to track whether this positioning continues or reverses in the days ahead.

Interpreting the Flow

When puts dominate the tape this heavily, the instinct is to call it bearish. That's probably correct here, but caveats apply. Some of this could be portfolio insurance from a fund already long AVGO stock. Buying deep downside puts on a $1.6 trillion market cap name is a standard way to limit tail risk without selling shares and triggering tax events.

That said, the repeated hits pattern on multiple strikes suggests more than one trader or more than one idea. The January 2027 $400 puts and the December 2028 $360 puts are different bets with different breakevens. The former needs a modest decline, the latter needs a meaningful correction but has years to work.

Implied volatility is worth watching. If IV is already elevated around earnings, these puts are expensive and the buyer is paying up for protection. If IV is low, the positioning is cheaper and arguably more aggressive. We don't have IV data in today's feed, but that's the next variable to check.

What to Watch

The September 2nd earnings call will be the first test. Any new put accumulation in the August 21st or September 18th expiries would suggest traders expect volatility around the report. If the stock gaps lower on earnings and the $390 strike comes into play, dealer hedging could accelerate selling near that level.

For the longer dated flow, the $360 strike in December 2028 is now the line to monitor. That's roughly 14 percent below current levels. If AVGO breaks below $380 on any catalyst, the delta on those puts increases and dealers short those contracts will need to sell stock to stay hedged. That creates the potential for a feedback loop.