Prediction Market Signals

Prediction markets like Polymarket let traders buy shares in the outcome of real-world events, so prices act as market-implied odds. StreetAlpha flags markets where positioning stands out: newer traders taking outsized positions (Early Conviction) and the largest positions in a market (Big Money). Markets with more than one signal are marked as confluence.

A prediction market share pays $1 if the outcome happens. A price of 62 cents means traders collectively put the chance near 62%. We track how those odds move over 30 days for Fed, crypto and policy markets, alongside the stocks and ETFs they tend to affect.

Every signal is scored once it is at least 24 hours old. Open markets are scored by how the backed outcome's price has moved since we first flagged it. Settled markets are scored on the final result, so the hit rate reflects real outcomes.

No. Signals are statistical anomalies in positioning, not proof of inside information, and linked tickers are StreetAlpha's own mapping rather than trade recommendations. Prediction markets may not be available in every jurisdiction.