NBIS Options Flow Leans Heavily Bullish as $49.4M in Net Premium Hits Before Earnings

$49.4 Million Bullish Premium Into the Print

Nebius Group (NBIS) attracted $49.4 million in net bullish options premium today, the heaviest institutional flow the stock has seen in weeks. The bulk of activity arrived in the final hours before the company's Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for after the close.

Whale flow shows repeated hits on long-dated $100 puts expiring in December 2027. Two separate prints totaling roughly $220,000 in premium landed on that strike, both flagged for descending fill patterns that suggest methodical accumulation rather than panic hedging. These are 17 months out, far enough to function as portfolio insurance rather than directional bets on the quarter.

The near-term action told a different story. Traders swept the $175 calls expiring July 31 twice in quick succession, each print around $20,000. Small individually, but the repeated nature of the hits suggests someone building a position into the print. The $175 strike sits roughly 10% above where shares closed Monday, implying a move through resistance if the print delivers.

The Put Structure: Protection or Positioning?

The put side of the flow deserves closer examination. Beyond the December 2027 $100 puts, whale flow flagged activity across August expirations at strikes ranging from $120 to $165. The $165 put expiring July 31 drew $150,000 in premium through repeated hits, while smaller prints landed on $130 and $120 strikes expiring in early and mid August.

This is not the flow profile of someone betting on collapse. The strikes are well below the current trading range, and the premium totals are modest compared to the $49.4 million net bullish read. The most likely interpretation is protective positioning, institutions holding long equity exposure buying downside protection into a binary event. The August $150 put, expiring four weeks out, saw ascending fill activity worth roughly $100,000, another signal of deliberate accumulation.

The ratio matters. When net premium runs this bullish despite visible put activity, it means call volume or call premium is overwhelming the hedge flow. That's a confidence signal, not a warning.

Earnings Context and Recent Price Action

Nebius reports Q2 results today after the bell. The company enters the print with momentum from several catalysts over the past two weeks. Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in the company on July 20, which sent shares up nearly 20% in a single session. Baird initiated coverage with an Outperform rating the following day, calling Nebius a full-stack provider in the AI cloud space.

Shares have been volatile. From a June peak near $300, Nebius corrected more than 37% into mid-July before bouncing on the Nvidia news. The stock traded around $177 last week before the rally. That kind of range creates opportunity for options traders willing to take directional views into earnings.

The company guided to full-year revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. Investors will focus on any updates to that range, along with adjusted EBITDA margins and commentary on the $22.5 billion capex plan Nebius outlined for 2026. A $775 million asset-backed loan announced in mid-July addressed some dilution concerns, but execution on the buildout remains the central question.

What the Flow Implies

The combination of net bullish premium, long-dated protective puts, and near-term call sweeps reads as institutional conviction with risk management. Someone, or multiple someones, is positioned for upside through earnings but hedged against a washout scenario.

The $175 call activity is the most actionable signal. That strike needs a meaningful beat and raise to land in the money by Friday. The traders buying those calls are not hedging. They're betting.

The December 2027 $100 puts are the opposite. At that strike and that expiration, the buyer is protecting a long equity position against a scenario where the AI infrastructure trade unwinds over the next year and a half. Both trades can coexist in the same portfolio. Both appeared in today's flow.

You can track real-time institutional options activity on the [Whale Alerts dashboard](/whalealerts), which flags unusual sweeps and block trades as they hit the tape.

What to Watch Next

The Q2 print lands after the close today. Options have priced an implied move in the 8% to 10% range based on at-the-money straddle pricing. Any move larger than that rewards the risk takers on either side.

Watch for three things in the report. First, the revenue number relative to the $3 billion to $3.4 billion full-year guide. Second, any commentary on the Nvidia relationship and what the 9.3% stake means for hardware access. Third, updates on the asset-light infrastructure model the company floated in late June, which spooked some investors before the Nvidia filing restored confidence.

The flow today says institutions are leaning long. The hedges say they're not reckless about it. The print resolves the bet in a few hours.