INTC Options Flow: $59M Net Bearish Premium Ahead of July 23 Earnings
Big put prints dominate, but long-dated call positions hint at divergent views.
Photo by Vishnu Mohanan on Unsplash
Institutional flow turned decisively bearish in INTC today with $59M net premium to the downside, though LEAPS call buyers are quietly building positions…
The Flow Picture: Puts Take the Lead
Net premium impact in INTC hit $59 million to the bearish side today, a notable swing for a name that's been grinding higher on AI and foundry optimism. The flow breakdown tells a story of near and medium term hedging, with multiple put positions flagged as repeated hits across the tape.
The largest single print was a $2.13 million position in the January 2027 $90 puts. That's roughly 27% below current levels, giving whoever built that position a long runway to either profit from a meaningful drawdown or hedge existing long exposure. A $90 strike with six months of time value suggests this isn't a short term directional bet. It's protection against a scenario where the foundry narrative unravels or broader semiconductor selling resumes.
Smaller put flow clustered around the November $97.50 and $100 strikes, with $290K and $260K in premium respectively. These are more surgical. With Q2 earnings landing July 23 and the stock sitting near $121, these positions are targeting a potential breakdown if the print disappoints. The strikes are close enough to current levels that a 15-20% post earnings gap would put them in the money.
The Contrarian Signal: LEAPS Calls Into 2028
Here's where it gets interesting. While the net premium screams bearish, a pocket of call buyers stepped in with conviction on the long end of the curve.
Two separate prints totaling $1.8 million landed in the December 2028 $110 calls. That expiry is over two years out. Whoever built this position isn't trading next week's earnings or next quarter's guidance. They're betting that Intel's foundry turnaround, 18A ramp, and AI positioning eventually delivers. At $110 strikes with the stock around $121, these are in the money calls that function more like synthetic stock than lottery tickets.
There was also a $1.08 million call print in the July 10 $100 strikes flagged as repeated hits. That's a two day expiry with the strike well below spot. This reads more like roll activity or an existing position being adjusted than fresh directional exposure.
What the Tape Is Pricing
The split in positioning reflects the two worlds Intel occupies right now. On one hand, you have a stock up 286% year to date that just pulled back 21% from its highs in a week. The recent selloff followed a Bank of America note flagging semiconductor valuations as stretched, and reports that Intel's 18A process won't hit profitable yields until late 2026 or 2027. That's the backdrop for today's put flow.
On the other hand, HSBC doubled its price target to $200, citing the long term foundry business potential. Bulls point to Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year over year, with Data Center and AI sales climbing 22%. The company is guiding Q2 revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion. The July 23 earnings call will be a reality check on whether the operational improvements are translating into sustainable margins or remain aspirational.
The options market is essentially straddling both outcomes. Hedgers are buying downside protection into earnings. Long term believers are accumulating exposure through LEAPS. The $59 million net bearish tilt tells you which camp had more capital to deploy today.
Technical Context Matters
INTC traded down to the $110 area during this recent drawdown, bouncing off what multiple analysts flagged as the 200 day exponential moving average around $108.66. The stock has recovered to the $121 range, but it's still well off the $142 high printed in late June.
The put strikes in today's flow are telling. The January 2027 $90s and the longer dated December 2027 $85s suggest institutional players are thinking about a scenario where Intel retests levels not seen since the beginning of the year. These aren't panic hedges. They're deliberate positioning for a potential leg lower if earnings disappoint or the broader semiconductor selloff extends.
For traders watching levels, the $108 area represents near term support. A clean break below that opens the door to $100, which would put the November puts in play. On the upside, the stock needs to reclaim $125 to restore bullish momentum heading into the print.
What to Watch Now
July 23 is the date that matters. Intel's Q2 earnings will provide clarity on foundry revenue, 18A manufacturing progress, and whether the company can deliver on its margin targets. The wide dispersion in analyst price targets, ranging from $25 to $200, tells you how much uncertainty surrounds execution.
The options flow today suggests institutional players are preparing for both outcomes. The put heavy tape indicates near term caution, while the LEAPS call accumulation reflects longer term conviction in the turnaround story. If you're trading INTC into the print, the positioning breakdown on our [Whale Alerts dashboard](/whalealerts) will help you track whether the put or call side continues to dominate as we approach the catalyst.
The next week's flow will reveal whether today's bearish tilt was a one day hedge or the start of a sustained defensive rotation ahead of earnings.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Published Wednesday, July 8, 2026.