How it works
The Bitcoin power law says the price grows as a fixed power of the number of days since the genesis block on January 3, 2009. On a chart with both axes on log scales that curve is a straight line, which is why the long history looks so orderly.
Fair value is the power law itself. Support and resistance are separate power laws fitted through each cycle’s bottom and top, so they move with the data. The model describes the past; it is not a promise about the future.
The formula
Price = 10^a × t^n, where t is days since January 3, 2009
Santostasi: a = −17.016, n = 5.845
Dacoinminster 2013: Price = 4.42e−17 × t^5.6
Date for a price: t = 10^((log10(Price) − a) ÷ n)
Worked example
On January 1, 2030, t is 7,668 days, and the Santostasi power law gives a fair value of about $489,700. The original 2013 Dacoinminster model gives about $251,000 for the same day. Under Santostasi, fair value first reaches $1,000,000 around September 2032.