$S5TW measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks currently trading above their 20-day moving average — a short-term breadth gauge.

When most stocks are below their 20-day MA, the market is broadly oversold on a near-term basis, not just dragged down by a few mega-caps. Below 20% indicates widespread short-term weakness. Below 10% is historically rare and marks extreme near-term capitulation.

In the 5-way analog filter, this is the primary trigger: the 15–38 range simultaneously with the other four conditions produced matched historical episodes since 2007.

$S5FI measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average — an intermediate-term breadth indicator reflecting trend damage built up over several weeks.

When $S5FI drops below 30%, the majority of S&P 500 stocks have broken their intermediate uptrend. Below 20% is the historically stressed zone where analog matches cluster around prior correction lows.

Unlike $S5TW, $S5FI is slower to recover — a divergence where $S5TW recovers but $S5FI lags signals a weak, narrow bounce rather than a true breadth thrust.

$S5TH measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average — the classic long-term trend filter and the slowest-moving of the three breadth indicators.

True bear market bottoms (2009, 2020) saw $S5TH collapse to 10–20%. Corrections within bull markets typically trough in the 25–40% range. Above 50% means more than half the index is still in long-term uptrends — consistent with a correction, not a structural bear.

Adding $S5TH to the analog filter expands the 'deeper correction' bucket: episodes where all five conditions matched but $S5TH stayed elevated tended to resolve either quickly or with a meaningful secondary leg down — the bimodal distribution.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market's expectation of 30-day S&P 500 volatility, derived from options pricing. Rising VIX means options traders are paying up for protection — the 'fear gauge.'

The analog filter uses VIX in two ways: (1) absolute level in range, and (2) VIX elevated vs. its own 20-day average (ratio 1.05–2.5×), ensuring we're capturing genuine fear episodes, not mild chop.

VIX 30 is the key watch level — sustained closes above 30 are associated with panic selling and often precede sharp recoveries. VIX 40+ marks true capitulation (COVID March 2020, GFC 2008). The VIX Spike Risk panel quantifies the historical probability of each threshold being hit in the next 20 trading days.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is a composite of 7 market sentiment indicators: S&P 500 momentum, stock price strength, breadth, put/call ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility (VIX), and safe haven demand.

Each component is scored 0–100 and equally weighted. Scores below 20 (Extreme Fear) have historically coincided with major market lows including March 2020 and October 2022.

This index is not used directly in the 5-way analog filter but serves as a confirmation signal — when breadth indicators and CNN F&G are simultaneously depressed, the forward return distribution shifts more favorably. Data is fetched live from alternative.me which mirrors the CNN index daily.

The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey polls individual investors weekly: Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish on the stock market over the next 6 months. Results are published every Thursday.

This dashboard tracks the Bearish reading as a contrarian signal — when 'everyone' is already bearish, much of the selling pressure has been exhausted. The long-run average bearish reading is ~31%. Readings above 50% are historically unusual.

Prior 50%+ bearish episodes include bottoms in 2009, 2022, and several correction lows. However, sentiment can stay elevated for weeks before the market turns — it is confirmatory, not a precise timing tool. Note: AAII surveys retail investors, not institutions.